Getting the Cards in Order

[Logi]

To be quite honest the equal playing field of the player nations demands some back-story explanation. For the major European powers, it's not a big deal for they were mostly at the same strength, however, for minor European and other powers it is a huge ahistorical change.

If you remember from when I posted the world GDP in 1870, the minor powers, Austria, Ottomans, Italy, and Japan were 1/4 or less the size of the major powers (England, France, Germany, USA) which would mostly equal.

That demands some explanation. This thread is for the purpose of the players to discuss and agree on a rough sketch on what the backstory is.

In other words, what happened in history to make the other powers so strong? The scale of difference is not something you can simply hand-wave away.

[Logi]

This is my current thought process regarding the extreme ahistoric position of Japan.

The Japan Problem
Japan is currently on the same economic level as all the other major powers, yet it's territories still only consist of Japan and the Ryuku Islands. First off, how did it achieve this growth despite that historically, it's GDP in 1870 was $25,393 million, 1/4th the size of the major powers like England, USA, France, and Germany? Second, why has Japan not tried to conquer it's neighbors despite that being the brute of their focus after industrializing was that.

In 1900, Japan's economy was $52,020 million compared to the USA at $312,499 million, the UK at $184,861 mil, Germany at $162,335 mil, Russia at $154,049 mil, and France at $116,747 mil. Yet they dared to challenge nations like Russia and China ($218,154 mil) at that point. By-the-by you can see the strength of the US economy, the same size as UK in 1870, $100,000 mil, but tripled in size in 30 years while UK didn't even make double. The same with Germany, France, and UK which were about $60 bil, $70 bil, $100 bil in 1870 but the roles have been thrown in disarray by 1900s.

Would a stronger Japan have contested many of the colonial ambitions of Europeans such as fighting over the Philippines, Hong Kong, etc.? That is the problem of having a extremely strong Japan dropped into 1870 out of no where. Historically, it took Japan until 1921 to reach the economical strength of the UK in 1870. Even then it was the combination of extraordinary luck and situation in the post Great War world that allowed that growth.

What was the average GDPpc growth of Japan before and during the Meiji period?
In 1820, the GDPpc of Japan was $669 in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars.
In 1850, the GDPpc of Japan was $679.
In 1870, the GDPpc of Japan was $737.
In 1912, the GDPpc of Japan was $1,384.

This is an average growth rate of 4.5% every year during the Meiji Restoration and 2.2% before the Restoration.

Why care about the Meiji Period?
It was during this period that most of the economic changes occurred. It was the economic policies lay in this period that lay the foundation for the growth in the 1868-1912 period and the enormous growth during the 1920-1930s period.

Without this period there would be no industrialized Japan in the 1930s. It might have played the way of China and the sankoku wars could have lasted much much longer than it did. The powers that be (in Japan) could have whittled away it's time as did the last Emperors of the Qing.

Thinking Up A Scenario
The limitations on a Japan growth is the only two historical events that could have kick-started the Meiji Restoration. William 2's (Netherlands) urging of Japan to open it's markets in 1844 and Perry's Black Ships in 1853.

I will not consider an earlier period because the realities of the period meant it was impossible for internal change within the Asiatic nations without strong external stimulus. It would be as ahistorical as the possibility of a industrialized China in 1900, it was not possible.

The Meiji Restoration started in 1868, which was a good decade and more after Perry's Black Ships. The decade before the reformation is vital because of the civil war fought within Japan to achieve the Meiji Restoration. The desire to change took much time and bloodshed after the stimulus (you can parallel this with China's industrialization).

I'll take the starting point of the Meiji Restoration at 1850 (following from Japan opening from Netherland's urging). Japan's population in 1870 was 34,437 thousand. If I simulate the GDPpc growth of Japan from 1850 (the earliest historically plausible possible date) to 1870 as the 1870-1912 period growth, the GDP of Japan is still $56,392 mil. That is double the historical economy size, but still half of what the majors are at.

Well quite obviously just shifting the Meiji Period would not magically explain the enormous growth of Japan in our sim or it's lack of aggression.

Well we can potentially find a explanation of Japan's ahistorical growth in our sim from Japan's historical growth in the 1950s.
x(h) = min[1, (αA)^{1/(1 - α)}h^{-(1 - ξ)/(1 - α)}]
y(h) = Ah^ξ[x(h)]^α + h(1 - x(h))
^dh/_dt = μH(t)^θh(t)^1-θ[1 - x(h(t))]^ζ

We can model postwar Japan's (1950-2000) growth by setting θ = 0.9 and x(0) = 0.25. I won't bore you with how this values and formulas came to being. But those values are derived for Japan in 1950, what is the value of x(0) in 1870?

We jump to "The Urbanization of Japanese Labor, 1868-1955" which states, "the absolute number of Japanese agricultural households has remained relatively stabled: 5.6 million in 1872 and 6.1 million in 1951." That tells us the households, but not the number of people. According to "Population and household change of a Japanese village, 1760-1870", the mean household size rose from 4.8 to 5.6. That means in 1870, the average household size was 5.6.

Then we can calculate: The agricultural population in Japan was about 31.36 million. That means 91% of the Japanese population was agricultural in 1870. Not surprising.

So in 1870, x(0) = 0.91, θ = 0.67. According the model, the annual GDPpc growth rate would be 6.47% per year. That's about a 44% relative error. If I reduce the value by 70%, it'll fall into 4.529% or the general vicinity of the actual rate of growth. In "Depressing Effect of Agricultural Institutions on the Prewar Japanese Economy", the authors argue that this is because of the prewar patriarchy forced the son designated as heir to stay in agriculture, which retarded catch-up growth. Another argument is that Japan's growth in the 1950-2000 period vs the 1870-1940 period is because of the removal of trade barriers in Europe and America postwar. So we'll assume those factors account for 30% shortfall of the GDPpc in actuality as compared to the reality.

If we take the previously mentioned scenario where the Meiji Restoration occurred in 1850 and assume the household size in agricultural remained the same as the literature seems to indicate, x(0) = 0.98. Let's try to compute under the model what the GDPpc in 1870 would be then.

GDPpc growth in 1850 = 1.67 x 0.7 = 1.17%.

What gives?

• In 1850, most of the world has not surpassed Asia enough to give a great growth rate from catch-up.
• Japan is too agricultural, x(0) = 0.98 means only 2% of the population is not engaged in the agricultural industry.

Perhaps if we make Japan slightly more open (θ = 0.75) and slightly less agricultural (x(0) = 0.91).
That makes Japan's GDP in 1870, $95,215 mil max to ~$80,000 mil min.

Good enough.

A Plausible Scenario for Japan

On August 15 1844, a letter signed by King Willem II of the Netherlands arrived in Nagasaki aboard the Dutch East Indies frigate Palembang. Within the letter was a warning to Japan of what the likely consequences of remaining closed would given what has occurred in the Opium War. But this was no threatening letter, instead it was a kind and heartfelt pleading to the officials of Japan as a returned favor for two centuries of kind treatment for Dutch merchantmen within Japan.

It was a great selfless act that was rudely rejected by the bakufu. This advice was completely wrong, they felt. These foreign men could not possibly hold the power to harm Japan.

AND THEN in 1946, the fearsome Pasta navy showed up. They pulled into port and demanded the Japanese accept the terms of their negotiation; all Japanese men would wear hats with dead chickens on them; or else they would rain Pasta on the Japanese. Fearfully the Japanese accepted and were greatly shamed. The bakufu collapsed and the radical Joi faction rose to power. No more chickens, they yelled, now we wear dead cats! After 4 long years of civil war within Japan, the Reformist movement won. They toiled away, hoping for a day when they would no longer have to wear hats with dead chickens and instead be able to wear a dead dog.

[Walter]

To be quite honest the equal playing field of the player nations demands some back-story explanation.

My thoughts were when that was said that that would include the colonies, but then that was changed so that some nations would still have some of their colonies. It would have made more sense to strip the colonies from the bigger nations and give the lesser nations colonies so it would be more reasonable to assume that the lesser nations would be on the same level as the OTL bigger nations.

One reason I keep pestering KW to give me Svizzera. This would give me a bit of additional population as well as an economic boost with the addition of exportable cheese, chocolates, knives, watches... uhm... mountain tourism... :)

AND THEN in 1946, the fearsome Pasta navy showed up.

I think that 1946 would be too late for my fearsome Pasta Navy to have any influence on your timeline. :-)

[Walter]

the Meiji Restoration at 1850

One problem with that of course is that Meiji was born in 1852. :)

[Logi]

AND THEN in 1946, the fearsome Pasta navy showed up.

I think that 1946 would be too late for my fearsome Pasta Navy to have any influence on your timeline. :-)

Sorry, I meant 1846 :-[

the Meiji Restoration at 1850

One problem with that of course is that Meiji was born in 1852. :)

A Meiji Restoration only as a common name. It would be the Reformists seizing power, with leaders like Sakuma Shōzan at the head.

[Walter]

I guess it would be called the Kōmei Restauration here then... unless you're planning to go into another direction with Japan. Perhaps the People's Republic of Japan. :)

[Darman]

My understanding was that my colonies at start dont give me any boost in economics at all, they actually take away from the economics of my home country. 

[KWorld]

Correct, the starting colonies are included in your economy at the start.

[Darman]

If you really want to come up with a "logical" historical reason for the changes then feel free to do it for your own county, and ask permission before using other people's countries in your own new timeline.  Otherwise let each of us decide our own if we want to. 

[Logi]

If you really want to come up with a "logical" historical reason for the changes then feel free to do it for your own county, and ask permission before using other people's countries in your own new timeline.  Otherwise let each of us decide our own if we want to.

Who are you directing this to? I only mention the Italians because me and Walter were joking about it in the IRC.

I presume that is not the issue and rather it is that I mentioned the Netherlands? In which case please go and look at the history. Everything I wrote about the Netherlands happened historically exactly as I wrote. I took no liberties in that field.


In any case...

I guess it would be called the Kōmei Restauration here then... unless you're planning to go into another direction with Japan. Perhaps the People's Republic of Japan. :)

Very doubtful that it would be called the Kōmei Restoration since he was not very supportive of the reformist effort.

Most likely it would be the People's Republic of Japan which partially explains the lack of aggressive conquests by Japan. A change to the post-Meiji Restoration style diplomacy, etc. would likely require a coup or a few decades later when the reformist effort has lost steam. Whether that happens in our sim's version of history is still a  toss-up for me.

[Darman]

If you really want to come up with a "logical" historical reason for the changes then feel free to do it for your own county, and ask permission before using other people's countries in your own new timeline.  Otherwise let each of us decide our own if we want to.

Who are you directing this to? I only mention the Italians because me and Walter were joking about it in the IRC.

I presume that is not the issue and rather it is that I mentioned the Netherlands? In which case please go and look at the history. Everything I wrote about the Netherlands happened historically exactly as I wrote. I took no liberties in that field.

It came across as sounder harsher than I meant.  I apologize.  I only meant that my preference is that we don't presume even OTL historic interactions in our own country's timeline with the timelines of other countries unless you've cleared it first. 

[Walter]

Okay. We'll assume that the Dutch never traded with Japan. I think Venetian traders may be interested to be the ones trading with Japan instead of the Dutch. We promise that it's all about business and nothing but business. We shall make sure that no catholicism-spreading priests get aboard these trading ships. ;D